Even at the high-end of 2.9% in terms of its case fatality rate, the COVID-19 is only slightly more dangerous than previous SARS outbreaks but substantially less deadly than some of the recent bad influenza and pneumonia years, where case fatality rates have sometimes exceeded 10%, said Dr. Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor at East China Normal University.

In his recent paper “Preliminary Assessment of Chinese Responses to the COVID-19”, the former public health officer with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention investigated how Wuhan and other places in China and the world have responded to the epidemic.

While public health scientists are still calculating case fatality rates (CFR), published numbers in leading health journals and the World Health Organization currently estimate it to be somewhere between 0.4% and 2.9%.

As Prof. Mahoney points out, the initial local response to the outbreak was mixed. On the one hand, the disease emerged quickly and both local officials and systems were overwhelmed. Although Wuhan is one of China’s leading cities and the major city in the Central China region, its development level and COVID-19’s novel characteristics left it more vulnerable than cities like Shanghai or Beijing.

Nevertheless, the paper finds that “while the outbreak has tested Wuhan especially, it has also produced numerous examples of human courage and struggle to overcome this outbreak, especially frontline medical personnel, all of whom have endured the most difficult circumstances beyond normal breaking points, including many who were fatally infected.”

“While the outbreak exposed a number of serious vulnerabilities in governance at the local level in Wuhan, it has reaffirmed the strengths and capacities of national governance.” While clear assessments have not been made yet, one area of improvement might be found in the national network for disease reporting built after SARS, which might need reform to accelerate reporting and analysis for a fast moving virus like COVID-19.

Another matter to explore, according to Prof. Mahoney, is whether stockpiles and locations of vital equipment are sufficient or should be expanded, including especially protective gear for medical personnel, and to ensure that production and distribution needs are met even in the midst of a crisis.

“Whatever and wherever the shortcoming, it will be incumbent on Chinese leaders to draw new lessons from this outbreak and make new reforms that will further strengthen governance,” said the professor in his conclusion.

Last but not least, the US expert believed that the outbreak underscores the increasing need for global cooperation and improving global governance. “The need to move past aggression and towards more global cooperation will be both the biggest and most difficult lesson for many to realize,” said Prof. Mahoney.

About the Author: Josef Gregory Mahoney is an internationally recognized expert in Chinese politics based in Shanghai at East China Normal University, where he serves as a professor of politics, the director of the International Graduate Program in Politics (IGPP), and the Executive Director of the International Center for Advanced Political Studies (ICAP). Prior to his academic career he was a public health officer with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.