Video PlayerClose

by Hummam Sheikh Ali

DAMASCUS, Sept. 6 (Xinhua) -- The scenario that has taken place in southern Syria and led to the retaking of vast areas there by the Syria army could be repeated in the northwestern province of Idlib, analysts said.

Idlib is the last major rebels stronghold in Syria, where an imminent battle is grabbing attention of superpowers.

In southern Syria, the army fully secured Daraa, the birthplace of the over seven-year war in Syria, and other areas in southern Syria in August, and is currently dealing with a pocket held by the IS in the remote eastern countryside of Sweida province.

But the war there is considered done as vast swathes of southern Syria has returned under the control of the Syrian army, save for al-Tanf area, where the United States has a military base under the same name in southeastern Syria.

In the battle in Daraa and other areas in the south, some of the rebels accepted the reconciliation while the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, or Levent Liberation Committee (LLC), was reluctant and refused to deal with the government.

However, the rebel groups fell like domino pieces in front of the army's offensive and some factions of the LLC accepted to surrender their heavy weapons and evacuated toward Idlib province.

The battle in the south was quicker than anyone had expected, as the area there, mainly in Daraa, was home to various rebel groups, including the IS, whose militants are now besieged in the Tilal al-Safa in Sweida countryside.

After the victory there, the army has shifted its focus to Idlib, which is the last major stronghold of the rebels in Syria and the battle there is expected to be the last major one in Syria's long-standing war.

Now that military operation in Idlib seems looming, similarities have been drawn between Idlib and Daraa.

Similiar to the situation in Daraa, the army has started amassing forces near Idlib frontline, the few rebel-held pockets in the mountains of Latakia province in northwestern Syria, and the northern countryside of Hama province in central Syria.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Wednesday the Syrian government forces have raised the level of alert, as part of the preparations for the anticipated military campaign in Idlib.

Ali Maqsoud, a retired military officer, told Xinhua that the scenario of the south will likely be repeated in Idlib. The LLC used to be the striking force in Daraa before its defeat and the group has become the striking force in Idlib.

Both Daraa and Idlib were included in the de-escalation zone deal agreed upon by Russia, Turkey, and Iran as part of the Astana talks on Syria.

But the presence of the terror-designated groups in Daraa has undermined the six-month deal.

The LLC presence in Idlib and the expiry of the six-month period of the deal made it crucial for the army to restore the last rebel bastion, but more favorably under international cover as Turkey has 12 observation points in Idlib as part of the de-escalation zones' deal.

Maqsoud, however, noted that the matter in Idlib is a bit more complicated, as it would be the last major battle in Syria's long-standing war and the foreign powers involvement is larger and deeper than that of Daraa.

Additionally, the foreign rebels in Idlib are more than in any other areas, especially as Idlib has turned into the destination to the rebels that left other parts of the country.

As part of the efforts to establish an international consensus about the upcoming operation, Iran will host a summit on Friday that will group the presidents of Iran, Russia, and Turkey to discuss the situation in Idlib.

Turkey has a considerable sway over the rebels and its alliance with the other two powers is crucial at this stage amid a rift between Ankara and Washington.

These efforts to end the situation in Idlib is also supported by Damascus, whose officials said that achieving reconciliation in Idlib is a priority but the war against the reluctant extremists seem inevitable after Turkey failed to persuade the LLC to dissolve itself.

Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said on Friday that the country is now in the "final quarter of an hour" of the Syrian war.

Maher Ihsan, another political analyst, said a limited military campaign could be launched against the extremists' groups while at the same time reconciliation deals could be struck with other factions desirous of achieving reconciliation with the government akin to what happened in Daraa.

He said that the amassing of forces and the tremendous political effort exerted by Iran and Russia to make this operation happen in order to bring an end to the battles in Syria mean that there is no turning back from the campaign in Idlib.

It's worth noting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met earlier this week with his Saudi counterpart, Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir and a couple of days later with Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem.

In the same timeframe, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif held meetings in Turkey with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Sure that is not an easy task, but some positive signs have appeared after all these meetings.

Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Jubeir said at a press conference following his meeting with Lavrov that his country stresses on the unity of Syria and its territorial integrity, shying away from previous remarks about the need for Assad to leave Syria.

His remarks were seen by al-Moallem, Syria's FM, as a "new change" in the Saudi stance from Syria, taking into consideration that Saudi Arabia is among the biggest supporters to the opposition in Syria and has bankrolled major rebel groups in the country, mainly the Islam Army that was pushed out of its stronghold near Damascus to Idlib and other areas near the Turkish border.

For Turkey, Ankara has been apparently opposing a wide-scale operation in Idlib, with Turkey fearing for its interests there and a possible influx of refugees, as nearly 3 million civilians live in Idlib in addition to over 20,000 militants.

As for the United States, the administration there started its reaction to the preparations for the Idlib battle through warnings by officials and President Donald Trump as well.

Moreover, the United States, Britain, and France issued a new warning to Assad against using chemical weapons in the battle there.

But later remarks indicate that the U.S. administration could support a limited operation in Idlib.

On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States shares Moscow's concerns over the presence of terrorists in Idlib, noting that his country is ready to work on solving this issue.

For his part, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford said on Tuesday during a trip to Athens that the possible assault in Idlib could lead to a "humanitarian catastrophe."

He noted that a precise and tailored counterterrorism campaign -- not a full-scale military offensive -- was the appropriate way to tackle extremist elements in northwest Syria.