Real estate stocks dropped yesterday, despite the biggest overall climb in
the stock market of the past week.
China Vanke Co. Ltd, the biggest property developer in Shenzhen, slipped 0.5
per cent, to 5.94 yuan (74.25 US cents). While Beijing property developer
Finance Street Holding Co. Ltd, dropped 0.7 per cent to 9.35 yuan (US$1.169).
The fall follows speculation that commercial banks will take further steps to
curb the growth in lending and increase mortgage down payments, following a
banking regulator's statement on Wednesday.
However, experts doubt the changes will have much effect because banks still
face growing pressure to generate profits.
It is widely believed banks will attempt to limit lending as well as
increasing down payments for mortgages on expensive homes and investment
properties, after the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) called for
tighter controls earlier this week.
But analysts were unsure whether such a move would meet the government's goal
of cooling the overheated property market, as banks are still under great
pressure to lend money due to excessive liquidity in the money market.
"Commercial banks will soon issue tighter lending policies, but in fact they
are reluctant to do so and therefore will only meet CBRC's lowest requirements."
Yi Xianrong, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told
Wang Deyong, an analyst with CITIC Securities, said it was still too early to
talk about the effect of CBRC's statement.
"Unless commercial banks produce related policies, the effect on the property
market will be negligible." Wang said. "But commercial banks will do anything
they can to lessen the pressure from the banking regulator."
Wang believes that even though commercial banks may increase down payments
for mortgages on expensive homes, it will not have a major impact on people
buying expensive properties because statistics show that rich people seldom need
a mortgage to buy a house."
"In fact, to increase the down payments will have more impact on poor people
and low-ended houses," Wang pointed out.
Shanghai analysts say the regulator's statement may have little immediate
impact on the city's property market, which has already adjusted substantially
"The short term impact of the statement will be limited," said Zhang
Xiaolong, analyst with Colliers International (East China), an international
brokerage company. "Speculation in the property sector has already dampened in
the city since last March," he said.
Shanghai's housing market is still slowly recovering from an eight-month
slump which began in June when a series of tightening measures introduced last
March took effect.
Housing prices in the city fell between June and February, after more than
doubling since 1999.
The property transaction volume also shrank during the period, with
outstanding individual mortgages in local banks declining since June, according
to the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China.
Meanwhile, housing prices in 70 other large and medium Chinese cities rose
5.6 per cent last month from a year earlier, while Shanghai was the only city
whose housing prices dropped, according to latest statistics released by
National Development and Reform Commission.
"Local banks have already tightened property loans to individuals and
developers since last March, "said Huang Weiwei, a real estate analyst with the
Shanghai-based Anjia website.
Earlier this month, CBRC's Shanghai bureau asked local banks to tighten the
approval of mortgages, because of rising defaults.
According to the bureau's statistics, the non-performing loan ratio has risen
to 0.68 per cent, compared with 0.58 per cent at the beginning of the year. The
bureau also said outstanding mortgages with local banks have been climbing since
Presently, mortgage loans account for about one-third of total outstanding
loans in Shanghai.
Liao Liguo, board member of Guangzhou Longchang Real Estate Development Co
Ltd, said the CBRC's statement, if implemented literally, will primarily
challenge small developers and frustrate people borrowing money to buy houses as
(Source: China Daily)