Impact by Hollywood writers' strike overestimated: economist
The economic impact by a protracted Hollywood writers' strike was far
less than some early estimates, an economist said yesterday.
Nickelsburg, an economist at the Anderson Forecast of the University of
California in Los Angeles (UCLA), said the strike would have a
380-million-dollar impact on the Los Angeles economy, far less than some early
estimates of US$1 billion.
He said initial estimates of the strike's impact
were "grossly inflated." The walkout would have a roughly US$380 million
economic impact, even if the strike were to last through the end of March --
roughly as long as the 1988 strike.
"Virtually everywhere in the media, in
City Hall and in Sacramento (capital of California), this greater than
1-billion-dollar economic impact is taken as fact," Nickelsburg said.
what is behind it and how much faith can we put in this number? Is there a
serious public issue for the Los Angeles economy worthy of governmental
"As it turns out, a close examination of the economic dynamics
of the 2007 WGA (Writers Guild of America) strike suggests a much more modest
and transitory impact on the Los Angeles economy," he said.
"The impact, even
if the strike runs as long as the record 1988 strike, will be about one-third or
less of the currently accepted 1-billion-dollar estimate."
for the WGA as well as television and film producers were negotiating for a
fourth consecutive day Thursday in hopes of ending the strike, which began on
The union is pushing for writers to be paid for work distributed via
the Internet, video iPods, cellphones and other new media.