The US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent annual rate in the
second quarter of this year, as many economists warned the economy will likely
fall into recession by the end of the year, a government report said yesterday.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive
contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE),
nonresidential structures and government spending, said the Commerce Department
while releasing the report.
The revised figure was much better than the government's initial estimate of
a 1.9 percent pace and the economists' estimate of 2.7 percent growth rate.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United
States. The second quarter GDP data will be revised once more by the department.
In the April-to-June period, consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds
of the overall economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 1.7 percent due to
the economic stimulus package, up from a 0.9 percent growth rate in the previous
quarter.
Spending on housing projects plunged 15.7 percent, not as steep as the 25.1
percent drop in the first quarter and the 27 percent drop in the final quarter
of last year.
The main drive on growth was the export sector, which surged 13.2 percent
instead of 9.2 percent as reported originally due to the weak dollar, while
imports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent instead of 6.6 percent.
"For a recession the economy is certainly growing very quickly," said Avery
Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.
"A lot of that growth is driven off exports and pessimists might say that
can't continue during slowing growth overseas, but I would say this happened
precisely during the period of slowing growth overseas ... this is still an
economy that faces slow times but not a recession," he said.
The White House also hailed the big gain. "This level growth is demonstrating
the resilience of our economy, even in the face of high energy prices and the
housing market downturn," said White House Spokeswoman Dana Perino.
But many economists believe the pace will not continue for the consumer
spending is sluggish, while some economists say the economy might fall into a
possible recession late this year.
"There will be heavy sledding for the US economy during the next couple of
quarters," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment
Strategies Group.
"I see possibly a recession by the end of the year, but it will be a
relatively short recession and a relatively mild recession," said Martin
Regalia, chief economist for the US Chamber of Commerce.
"Some of the problems in the economy are a little more fundamental than
consumption," he told reporters in a briefing.
US GDP actually declined by an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the final
quarter of last year, according to annual revisions released by the department
last month.
The fourth-quarter's drop marked the worst showing since the third quarter of
2001, when the economy was last in a recession. Arecession is typically marked
by two straight quarters of negative economic growth.