Chinese analysts expect CPI, PPI to fall in September
10/10/2008 16:46
Analysts predict China's consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price
index (PPI) to drop in September.
CPI is a key measure of inflation. PPI
measures the average change in the selling prices received by producers for
their output,
Taking in to account food prices and last September's 6.2
percent CPI increase, inflation in September 2008 is likely to drop for the
fifth consecutive month, analysts said. Rising food costs are one of the primary
factors leading to CPI inflation in China.
The PPI, which reflects
manufacturing costs, was also expected to fall from a record high of 10.1
percent set in August, as a result of lower commodity prices on the
international market.
Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International
Capital Corporation Limited, forecast September's CPI would fall from 4.9
percent in August to around 4.5 to 4.8 percent.
The PPI reading in September
was expected to drop to between 9.7 to 10 percent. The margin between CPI and
PPI would continue to be maintained, he said.
Li Huiyong, chief analyst of
Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, predicted the CPI for September would fall to
less than 4.9 percent. He also forecast a two percentage point drop of the PPI,
which would place it at 8.1 percent.
Industrial Bank Chief Economist, Lu
Zhengwei, estimated the CPI reading for September would be somewhere between 4.6
to 4.9 percent and the CPI for the third quarter would be below six
percent.
Lu said CPI inflation would continue to slowly drop in the coming
months and the country's economy could possible encounter deflation in
2009.
As usual, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was expected to
release September's CPI and PPI readings later this month.
According to the
NBS, China's CPI rose 4.9 percent in August from a year earlier. The figure,
compared with 6.3 percent in July this year, 7.1 percent in June and 7.7 percent
in May, was lower than most forecasts.
Xinhua
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