While domestic and foreign economists are actively involved in the dispute
about Chinese monetary policy, another four issues have a direct impact upon the
general economic situation in both the short and long-term.
The first is
about the influence of land use on macroeconomic regulation.
The central
government has tried to use monetary policies to curb an overheated economy
since August 2003. Why is controling land use so effective?
Firstly, if land
isn't accessible, most fixed-asset investment projects can't continue - don't
forget these projects led the economic boom.
Secondly, land is the most
reliable asset when enterprises apply for bank loans. The control of land use
restrains the growth in the money supply.
In the first quarter of this year,
bank loans increased 20.1 percent. Yet, the figure was only 18.6 for the second
quarter after the policy was put forward.
Thirdly, transferring land is a
major source of local government income, which in turn fuels the money supply
for government-initiated projects.
Land leasing earned local governments 900
billion yuan (US$108.4 billion) or a quarter of their total revenue. When land
is controlled, local governments lack funds to start new projects.
Yet the
State Council's decision is only for six months. What will happen at the end of
this year when controls are lifted?
As most local governments and enterprises
look forward to that moment, a new economic cycle will form.
The second issue
is the so-called shortage of migrant workers.
The Pearl River Delta, the
Yangtze River Delta, and Shandong Province have reported a shortage of migrant
workers. It seems incredible that the most populous country in the world lacks
labor.
Some analysts say it is due to low wages. Perhaps this is part of the
reason, but they have been underpaid for so long, why have they returned to the
countryside now, especially when employers have raised salaries?
I talked to
people from the countryside. They said that many of their burdens have been
relieved by the government, thus they prefer to cultivate the land. Even more so
this year, as farm produce prices have widely risen.
When the country's
population peaks around 1.45 billion in about 2030, the country will need 720
million tons of grain. Compared with the peak yield in 1998, the shortfall will
be about 200 million tons.
Relying on imports won't work as the world's total
grain trade volume is only 200 million tons now.
Urbanization will also
continue putting more pressure on the land. This creates a dilemma - if the
government wants to raise crop yields, relatively high prices need to be
maintained, resulting in a short supply of labor in coastal areas. Still if the
salary in cities is high enough to attract farmers, not only will crop yields be
affected, but the nation could lose its low labor cost advantage.
The third
issue is that developed countries agreed to cut farm subsidies in the Doha round
of free trade talks. Some people think it will benefit China, but this
viewpoint, in my mind, is optimistic.
China will import more than 20 million
tons of farm produce this year, and it will likely increase to 50 million tons
in the next few years. When developed countries cut farm subsidies,
international prices will increase.
Why did developed countries cut export
subsidies now? When they subsidized farmers in their countries, they planned to
guarantee their income and explore export opportunities. Now, as they predict a
shortage, which will lead to higher prices in the future, they've changed their
strategy.
The situation isn't limited to produce. Last year, China imported
large amounts of iron ore, steel, oil, copper and aluminum - many of which
accounted for at least a quarter of the world's total trade in each item.
The
final issue is about the impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate
increases. Examining how the interest rate increase will affect the current
"double deficit" situation in the US economy deserves close attention.
As the
United States is one of China's biggest trading partners, any economic problems
in America will be felt here at home.
(The writer is a senior researcher at China's National Development and Reform
Commission.)