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Little reason to bet on rally
23/5/2005 16:01

Shanghai Daily news

Millions of China's stock investors were excited a rally was about to take place on Thursday, a strong rally that could match the market's rise on the same day six years ago, when a People's Daily newspaper commentary encouraged investment in equities.
The article piqued a buying interest and led a two-year bullish mood.
Now that the market has come full circle - the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is where it was six years ago - there's a groundswell of feeling the market has hit rock bottom. But a turnaround is still not imminent.
One thing to note is the central bank will probably further raise the interest rate to cool the real estate industry. That move will likely drain liquidity out of the stock market.
In October, the People's Bank of China hiked the benchmark one-year renminbi deposit rate 0.27 percentage points to 2.25 percent.
Apparently, government officials empathize with the disgruntled retail investors who have suffered severe losses since 2001, when the market peaked.
The central government has tried different tonics - from trading tax cuts to initial public offering freezes - to bolster the market.
Yet the benchmark index keeps plummeting like a plane falling out of the sky.
Indeed, the entire matter is "water over the dam."
First, the upbeat commentary six years ago was misrepresented by a group of companies and fund managers that swindled billions out of retail investors pockets through false information and price rigging.
They beat the drum for a long-lasting rise as 40 to 50 million individual investors chased the rally.
"In-the-know" fund managers always bought low and sold high, leaving small investors to carry the bag.
With tighter regulations and more educated investors, a repeat of such a rally is unlikely.
Second, the government's current state share sell-down program, though viewed as a sure-fire cure for the decade-long arcane system, will leave the market in a funk for an unknown period of time.
The government has two-thirds of non-tradable stakes in more than 1,200 listed companies, which are capitalized at about 2.2 trillion yuan (US$264 billion).
The massive state holding resulted in arrogant management and insider trading. It would be harmful for the market's growth if those shares remain locked-up.
However, the stake sale will eventually soak up a huge amount of money and may drag the indexes down further.
The government is taking a slow approach as it picked only four companies to start the project on a trial basis. No agenda has been given on the whole issue. It will surely take years.
Third, since seasoned investors now buy stocks on valuation, rather than rumor, listed companies - even those making profits - still are not generous about distributing dividends to shareowners.
In 2004, 60 percent of public firms paid dividends to investors.
Investors need to take a long-term look before investing in the stock market.