Little reason to bet on rally
23/5/2005 16:01
Shanghai Daily news
Millions of China's stock investors were excited a rally was about to take
place on Thursday, a strong rally that could match the market's rise on the same
day six years ago, when a People's Daily newspaper commentary encouraged
investment in equities. The article piqued a buying interest and led a
two-year bullish mood. Now that the market has come full circle - the
benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is where it was six years ago - there's a
groundswell of feeling the market has hit rock bottom. But a turnaround is still
not imminent. One thing to note is the central bank will probably further
raise the interest rate to cool the real estate industry. That move will likely
drain liquidity out of the stock market. In October, the People's Bank of
China hiked the benchmark one-year renminbi deposit rate 0.27 percentage points
to 2.25 percent. Apparently, government officials empathize with the
disgruntled retail investors who have suffered severe losses since 2001, when
the market peaked. The central government has tried different tonics - from
trading tax cuts to initial public offering freezes - to bolster the market.
Yet the benchmark index keeps plummeting like a plane falling out of the
sky. Indeed, the entire matter is "water over the dam." First, the upbeat
commentary six years ago was misrepresented by a group of companies and fund
managers that swindled billions out of retail investors pockets through false
information and price rigging. They beat the drum for a long-lasting rise as
40 to 50 million individual investors chased the rally. "In-the-know" fund
managers always bought low and sold high, leaving small investors to carry the
bag. With tighter regulations and more educated investors, a repeat of such a
rally is unlikely. Second, the government's current state share sell-down
program, though viewed as a sure-fire cure for the decade-long arcane system,
will leave the market in a funk for an unknown period of time. The government
has two-thirds of non-tradable stakes in more than 1,200 listed companies, which
are capitalized at about 2.2 trillion yuan (US$264 billion). The massive
state holding resulted in arrogant management and insider trading. It would be
harmful for the market's growth if those shares remain locked-up. However,
the stake sale will eventually soak up a huge amount of money and may drag the
indexes down further. The government is taking a slow approach as it picked
only four companies to start the project on a trial basis. No agenda has been
given on the whole issue. It will surely take years. Third, since seasoned
investors now buy stocks on valuation, rather than rumor, listed companies -
even those making profits - still are not generous about distributing dividends
to shareowners. In 2004, 60 percent of public firms paid dividends to
investors. Investors need to take a long-term look before investing in the
stock market.
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