Despite concerns over global inflation, the struggling U.S. dollar and a
potential bust in the commodities market, the U.S. and global stock markets
should benefit from an economic "soft landing" in 2007 and are poised to grow
further, said Wall Street leading financial experts on Tuesday.
The "soft landing" of the U.S. and global economies seems to be over and
balance of risks seems to have shifted towards stronger growth, said Nariman
Behravesh, Chief Economist and Executive Vice President of Global Insight, at
the fifth annual Dow Jones Indexes/ STOXX Ltd. Global Economic Outlook.
"Assuming that commodity prices do not snap back from current levels, the
implications of this scenario are bullish for earnings in developed markets, but
less rosy for emerging markets, which benefited from the commodities boom." said
Behravesh.
Michael Hartnett, Global Emerging Markets Investment Strategist at Merrill
Lynch, believes that 2007 will prove to be a strong year for emerging markets,
particularly in Asia.
"We are unequivocally bullish on the secular outlook for emerging markets.
This asset class is undercapitalized, underleveraged and under-owned and yet it
is in the midst of one of the greatest bull markets.
In fact, massive savings are likely to boost growth and prices for many years
to come," said Hartnett.
He also identified key risk factors that could harm performance in this
region: global inflation, the strength of the U.S. dollar, a potential credit
event and a protectionist policy with emerging market countries.
Although
the dollar has dropped about 25 percent since its 2002 peak, currencies tend to
revert to fair value in the long term and the dollar will bounce back in the
coming years, predicted Rebecca Patterson, Global Currency Strategist at JP
Morgan Chase.
"The U.S. dollar's outlook in 2007 hinges largely on whether the U.S. economy
will have a soft or hard landing. Ironically, a hard landing could prove the
best-case scenario for the dollar, as it would likely bring a narrowing of the
current account deficit and repatriation of U.S. capital invested abroad," said
Patterson.
Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, expects the
unprecedented levels of liquidity that drove both U.S. and international markets
higher in 2006 to continue, but warns investors of decelerating economic growth
in 2007.
"We've seen an abundance of liquidity, strong corporate earnings growth, low
volatility, a pause in the Fed's raising of interest rates -all signs that
indicate we will avoid a recession this year. This is good news; however,
investors should keep in mind that liquidity-driven booms can be dissolved
quickly by unexpected events" said Sonders.
Sonders anticipated higher volatility in 2007, which gives investors an
opportunity to rebalance their portfolios using a diversified, long-term
investment approach. Sonders recommends investors focus on health care,
technology and consumer staples stocks.