The latest US interest-rate hike might be a relief for Chinese monetary
authorities who are highly cautious of lingering speculation on revaluation of
the renminbi.
But a critical matter the move actually spotlighted was the pace of China's
interest-rate increase.
The US Federal Reserve nudged up its benchmark interest rates by a quarter of
a percentage point on Wednesday, narrowing the recently enlarged interest-rate
gap between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.
This is the fourth time the US central banker has boosted credit costs this
year in its measured efforts to remove some of the exceptional degree of
stimulus to the US economy.
And it came two weeks after the Chinese counterpart finally raised its
domestic interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
Surely, the apparently synchronized rate-hike in China and the United States,
the two major growth engines of the world economy, says a lot about underlying
changes in the perspective for global growth. The times of cheap money may soon
be over.
However, whether China will also press on with small but steady rate increase
as the United States has done is still up for debate.
Different economic conditions certainly call for different monetary policies.
While the United States was concerned about how to ensure its recovery picks
up the pace enough to cope with stiffer rates, China is more concerned with a
desirable soft-landing.
Excessive investment has not only propelled China's economic growth to an
unsustainably high level but also significantly fueled inflationary pressures in
the domestic market.
A late-October interest rate hike serves as a needed stab to address this
problem.
Some argued that it was not necessary to raise interest rates soon to allow
previous moves to take effect, while others insisted frequent marginal
adjustments are crucial to bring the market into full play.
Anyway, the rate hike of about a quarter-percentage-point China's central
bank announced last month is more symbolic than substantial in discouraging
credit demands stemming from excessive investment growth.
At present, the real interest rate for loans is still near zero. More steps
will definitely be required to effectively bring down credit demand.
With its currency still virtually pegged to the US dollar, China's monetary
authorities have little elbow room in sharply raising interest rates, which
otherwise might invite more inflow of foreign capital and force the central bank
to pump more local currency into the partly overheating home market.
With the interest rate gap between renminbi and the US dollar narrowed again,
Chinese monetary authorities are better positioned to set the pace of their own
rate-rise.