Shares slump on higher interest
1/11/2004 11:42
Shanghai Daily news
Shares in Shanghai slumped yesterday led by real estate and related sectors
after China's central bank announced a rise in its benchmark interest rates for
the first time in nine years. The Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both
yuan-denominated A shares and hard-currency B shares, dropped 1.58 percent to
1,320.54. The A-share Index also lost 1.57 percent to 1,385.67, while the
B-share Index shed 2.56 percent to 85.09. The People's Bank of China raised
the one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent from 5.31 percent from yesterday. The
last time the rate was raised was in July 1995. The PBOC also raised the
one-year deposit rate 27 basis points from 1.98 percent, the first increase
since July 1993. The new rate is 2.25 percent. Analysts viewed the rate
move would not strongly influence the local stock market because of the small
increase. "The rise happened quite suddenly. Both Premier Wen Jiabao and Zhou
Xiaochuan (governor of the central bank) said previously the rates would not be
raised within this year. But it came really, without any warning," said Wei Wei,
a West China Securities Co Ltd. "But the increase was small, even lower than
our previous expectation of 0.5 percentage point," she said. "So its negative
effect will be very limited." She noted if the rise went above 1 percentage
points or if the government raised the rates successively, the influence on the
share market would be much stronger. "The listed companies' earnings may
shrink a little, which will be possibly reflected in their last quarter's
reports. But it is not very likely to last longer," she added. Besides,
analysts also believed that the rise in the interest rates would put pressure in
the near term on listed companies with large liabilities, such as real estate
companies, raw material suppliers, petrochemical industry, steelmakers and
automotive manufacturers. The central government has restricted loans to the
steelmaking, auto and real estate industries on concerns of surplus capacity, as
part of measures to curb economic growth. "It is most likely that real estate
developers will be affected (by the rate move). Then it will spread and affect
the raw material industry like cement suppliers," said Zhang Qi, an analyst with
Haitong Securities Co Ltd. Shanghai-listed real estate developer Nanjing
Chixia Development Co Ltd almost slipped to its trading limit, losing 9.61
percent to close at 11.1 yuan (US$1.34). Beijing Vantone Pioneer Real Estate
Co Ltd shed 9.48 percent to 10.6 yuan, while Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd dived
8.51 percent to 9.14 yuan. However, "listed real estate companies generally
have strong capabilities to resist risks. They should be able to offset the curb
on their earnings in a short time," said West China's Wei. Chinese
steelmakers, including Baoshan Iron and Steel Co, declined. Baoshan, the listed
unit of the world's sixth-largest steelmaker, withdrew 3.06 percent to 5.71
yuan. Wuhan Iron and Steel Co, the country's third-largest publicly traded
steelmaker, tumbled 4.51 percent to 3.39 yuan. "But the rise must be good
news for banks, especially after the central bank loosened the country's heavily
regulated interest regime by removing the ceiling on the floating range," said
Haitong's Zhang. Commercial banks can adjust lending rates to factor credit
risk, and the difference between rates for deposits and loans may be
considerable, Zhang noted. China Merchants Bank Co, the nation's largest
publicly traded lender, advanced 1.14 percent to 8.85 yuan. The bank said in
statement yesterday they would begin the sale of convertible bonds worth 6.5
billion yuan next week as it seeks to boost capital and strengthen
operations. The five-year bonds will be offered to existing shareholders
first, and then to other institutional and individual investors starting next
Thursday, the statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange said.
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