Stocks fall following rate hike
1/11/2004 11:42
Shanghai Daily news
Share prices of the two stock markets on China's mainland inched down
yesterday in response to the central bank's decision to raise interest rates.
Despite the small drop in stock prices, financial analysts say the rate hike
is generally seen as a positive move that will have a moderating effect on the
economy. The analysts also said the move, which is seen as a clear signal the
government plans to curb inflation, will have far-reaching significance as the
central bank made rates more market oriented. On Thursday, the People's Bank
of China surprised many by raising the benchmark one-year bank deposit and
lending rates by 27 basis points each to 2.25 percent and 5.58 percent
respectively. It was the first rate hike in nine years. The Shanghai
Composite Index dropped by 1.58 percent yesterday, while the Shenzhen Component
Index dropped by 2.31 percent, as traders worried that the interest rate hike
would have a negative influence on several sectors, including real estate, raw
materials, petrochemicals and automobile manufacturing. They also worry the
move will hurt companies carrying large levels of debt. Pressure on companies
in these sectors will probably only last for a short while, said Zhang Qi, a
Haitong Securities Co Ltd analyst. "The impact brought by the rate rise is
possibly very limited and will not last very long," Zhang said. He said the
rate increase was quite small so it's not likely to have a strong effect on the
stock market. "Higher interest rates do not necessarily result in declines on
the stock market in the long term," Zhang added. David Pitcher, executive
director of CB Richard Ellis Property Consultants Ltd, Shanghai, cast doubt on
fears the higher interest rates will hurt the city's real estate
market. "This is only an adjustment that could happen any time, not the
beginning of a trend," Pitcher said. He said common wage earners looking to
buy a first home will be influenced more than property speculators by the hike.
"Speculators are looking at 10 or 20 percent investment returns. Such a
minor increase in interest rates will have little effect on them," he said.
"Higher interest rates will have a major influence on first-time home buyers
at the very bottom of the market. The government wouldn't like to see that," he
added. As a result, housing prices will probably level off or perhaps even
fall in some suburban areas, he said. While the rate hike isn't expected to
have a big effect on financial markets, many local residents headed to their
banks yesterday to make changes to their accounts. A local surnamed Zhang
changed his three-year deposit of 50,000 yuan (US$6,024) to a new account so he
would earn an extra 1,080 yuan from the higher rates. Home owners who have
already signed a mortgage and started borrowing money from banks will begin
paying the new interest rate starting next year. Those who have signed a
contract without actually borrowing from lenders will be charged the new rates
once they start using the loan.
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