While the impact of China's recent interest rate increase on economic
growth remains to be seen, its implications for the local insurance industry are
relatively clear, analysts say.
The rate hike will help lift the dwindling returns on insurance companies'
fast-growing assets, and boost their solvency margins. Although, higher interest
rates threaten to divert clients' attention away from a broad range of low-yield
insurance products, they say.
"It's like a double-edged sword," said Tuo Guozhu, a professor with the
Beijing-based Capital University of Economics and Business.
"The interest rate rise may prompt some policyholders to consider retracting
contracts, but insurance companies' investments will likely see some
improvement," he added.
China's central bank announced its first rate hike in nine years last
Thursday in an effort to slow down economic growth, raising the one-year
benchmark rates on both lending and deposits by 27 basis points.
The action, though long-anticipated and seen as a mild one, triggered a drop
in both domestic and overseas financial markets.
But insurance stocks outperformed. All three listed Chinese insurance
companies rose the following day, with stocks of China Life and Ping An, the
nation's leading life insurance providers, closing 4 per cent up.
The major reason investors welcomed the move, analysts say, was the concrete
support the rate hike will bring to insurance companies' bottom line, and
expectations that further actions may be in the pipeline.
"The interest rate rise will push up yields on both deposit agreements, in
which insurance companies hold a large part of their assets, as well as bonds,"
Tuo said. "That will improve their investment returns and boost repayment
capacity."
Currently, Chinese insurance firms can only invest in bank deposits and some
types of bonds, and trade stocks only through securities funds. The insurers
were recently allowed to trade stocks directly, but are still in a preparatory
stage.
The insurers held 52 per cent of their investments, totalling a combined
873.9 billion yuan (US$105 billion) at the end of last year, in bank deposits.
A string of interest rate cuts and a bearish stock market have resulted in
declining investment returns for insurance firms. Prior to last week's rate
increase, the one-year deposit rate was 1.98 per cent, a years low.
Average investment returns among insurance companies dipped to 2.68 per cent
last year from 3.14 per cent in 2002.
What last week's 27 percentage point rate increase will bring to insurers is
not just an improving amount of interest income, but hopes for more rate rises
in the coming months as many believe China's monetary policy has now entered a
phase of rate increases, following years of rate cuts to fight inflation.
But the sword also cuts the other way. Analysts say higher bank rates will
make the already low return on a wide range of insurance policies, including
many conventional life insurance products and more recently-launched
with-profits policies, even less appealing.
The short-term single-premium with-profits policies, which saw huge sales in
the past couple of years, typically carry interest rates of less than 2 per cent
and have generated no more than 1 per cent of profit for policyholders in the
past two years due to the bearish stock market.
"Such policies do not offer high protection levels, and the yield has been
low," said one analysts who declined to be named.
"So the interest rate rise will likely make some policyholders retract their
contracts," he said, adding that massive policy retractions threaten to cause
liquidity difficulties for insurance firms.
A low interest rate environment has strongly boosted sales of with-profits
and investment-linked life insurance products, through which insurers try to woo
clients with the hopes of investment returns in compensation for the low
interest rates. But the persistently low capital market has disappointed many
policyholders.
"Insurance companies will have to develop new products and make adjustments,"
Tuo said.
Some insurers have already responded by raising interest rates on their
products. Hua An Insurance Co raised the annual return on a new three-year
homeowner product to 3.27 per cent from 2.55 per cent the day after the rate
increase announcement. And the Guangzhou Branch of American International
Assurance, the largest foreign life insurer in China, has also reportedly raised
yields on two universal life insurance products.
But others say they are in no hurry to raise returns on policies. Many
insurers, both domestic and foreign-invested, said they will not follow suit in
the near term.
"We are fully prepared for this (interest rate increase)," Li Liangwen,
deputy general manager of China Life Insurance Co Ltd, was quoted by China
Insurance News as saying. "We believe those who choose to retract contracts will
only be a small number, because there is a cost involved if doing that without a
proper reason."
Analysts say most insurers will not raise their promised returns until the
central bank raises rates further and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission,
the industry watchdog, raises a 2.5 per cent ceiling of annual return on
insurance policies.