Interest rates will rise today
29/10/2004 11:35
China's central bank yesterday raised its benchmark interest rates for the
first time in nine years. The move steps up efforts to curb inflation and
alleviate power and materials shortages. The rise, which takes effect today,
comes as the government struggles to curb investment that has pushed economic
growth to more than 9 percent a year and inflation to a seven-year high. The
People's Bank of China said the one-year lending rate would rise to 5.58 percent
from 5.31 percent, the first loan rate rise since July 1995. The one-year
deposit rate will rise to 2.25 percent from 1.98 percent, the first increase in
the interest rate paid on savings since July 1993, the bank said. Raising
interest rates is likely to weaken pressure on China to re-value its
currency. China's economy continues to boom despite efforts to cool growth,
with gross domestic product climbing 9.1 percent in the third quarter and 9.5
percent in the first three quarters of this year compared with a year
earlier. Policy makers fear sizzling growth will fuel inflation - now 5.2
percent. They have ordered banks and local governments to cut back on
construction projects and redundant industrial investments. Spending on
construction, factory equipment and other fixed assets surged 27.7 percent in
the first nine months of the year from a year earlier to 4.5102 trillion yuan
(US$543.4 billion). While the rate rise came without warning, many analysts
had said China could no longer simply rely on administrative orders to cool the
economy. "China's bid to curb inflation has been effective so far but
investment is still growing too quickly," said Yiping Huang, Hong Kong-based
chief China economist at Citigroup Global Markets Asia Ltd. "There is a
strong possibility the Chinese central bank will raise rates further in the near
term." JPMorgan economist Ben Simpfendorfer predicted the move would be the
first of a gradual tightening process that would possibly prompt a further rate
rise before the end of the year. The PBOC also further liberalized the
country's heavily regulated interest-rate system by removing the upper limit on
the floating range in which commercial banks can adjust lending rates to price
credit risk. However, a 10 percent discount on the lending rate remains in
place to prevent banks undercutting each other to attract the best
customers. Copper prices and shares in mining companies fell after the rate
decision. Copper for delivery in three months fell US$46, or 1.6 percent, to
US$2,754 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Shares in BHP Billiton,
the world's biggest mining company, fell 5 percent in London. The last time
China used higher interest rates to cool the economy, growth almost halved to
7.1 percent in 1999 from 12.8 percent in 1994.
Bloomberg/AP
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