China predicts GDP to rise 8% this year
6/3/2006 9:21
China plans to grow its economy by about 8 percent this year, stressing the
quality, rather than the quantity, of expansion, Premier Wen Jiabao said in
Beijing yesterday at the start of this year's annual session of the National
People's Congress. The targeted increase in gross domestic product is 1.9
percentage points lower than the growth experienced last year, but it is higher
than the 7.5 percent figure identified in the country's 11th Five-Year Plan,
covering 2006 to 2010. Wen's forecast was part of the annual work report he
delivered to the 2,927 delegates attending the legislative session in the Great
Hall of the People. The projected growth rate conveys the signal that
macroeconomic control will produce "steady and healthy" results. The pace of
China's economic growth is likely to slow this year, agreed Wang Xiaoguang, an
economist at the Institute of Macroeconomics under the State Development and
Reform Commission. But Wang said the figure could still hit around 9
percent. "Last year, the government expected growth of 8 percent, but it came
to 9.9 percent," Wang said. "We will adhere to the strategy of
strengthening the role of consumption in fueling economic development," the
premier said. He urged nationwide efforts to increase incomes in urban and
rural areas, encourage spending in rural areas, reduce taxes on middle- and
lower-income wage earners and farmers and reform the salary system for public
servants, among other measures. To Zheng Jingping, a senior official with the
National Statistics Bureau, boosting demand is "the decisive factor" for fast
and steady economic growth this year. "The major problem plaguing China's
economy is the contradiction between a remarkably strong supply capacity and
comparatively stable or weakening growth in demand," said Zheng. To maintain
"fast yet steady" economic development, Wen said China's macroeconomic structure
will remain stable and that "prudent fiscal and monetary policies" would
continue. Wen said the driving force for economic expansion came from
investment, which also created uncertainties. "Fixed-asset investment is
still expanding too rapidly. Investment in some industries is increasing too
quickly, and too many new projects have been launched," Wen said. Qin
Chijiang, an NPC deputy and financial professor, shared Wen's views. He said
fixed-asset investment continues to rise in the power, coal and other
sectors. "The growth rate can neither be too fast nor too slow," said Xiao
Yuhuai, NPC deputy and director of the Jilin Branch of the China Banking
Regulatory Commission. "Too high a growth rate is not conducive to containing
excess investment. Rather, it would easily lead to a waste of resources and
overcapacity." But if the expansion is too slow, it will be difficult to meet
the demands of social progress and resolve major problems, including job
creation. "It is our foremost task to avoid big ups or downs in the economy,"
Xiao said. NPC deputy Yu Xuexin, who is also director of the Chongqing
Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said, "It's not very difficult to
hit the 8 percent target, but what's worth our attention is the quality and
efficiency underlying the figure." (Xinhua)
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