President Hu Jintao's United States tour was a landmark visit, with pomp
and ceremonies on the White House lawn. Hu had in fact visited Washington
earlier when he was vice-president, but this was his inaugural visit as China's
top leader.
In fact, Hu was originally supposed to have visited
Washington D.C. last October, but called off the visit because of the calamities
caused by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans and the American South. This visit
came after that of US President George W. Bush to Beijing last November, when he
also visited Kyoto, Busan (for the APEC leaders' meeting) and Ulan Bator in
Mongolia.
In Southeast Asia, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries
have been watching this visit and its symbolism with profound interest for one
fundamental reason: Southeast Asian countries are seeking regional stability in
order to build their economies and stabilize their societies as they globalize
further.
A good US-China entente at the Washington summit, like during the Beijing
summit late last year, could inaugurate a further period of stability in
international and regional affairs, despite the existing bilateral issues and
irritants between Beijing and Washington, ranging from trade and finance to
intellectual property rights (IPR). It is therefore the bigger strategic picture
that is crucial to the smaller Asian countries.
The United States and China are believed to be the world's most important and
key "stakeholders" in international affairs, ranging from Iran and the Korean
peninsula to the Middle East and Africa. Bush would certainly have discussed
these issues with Hu and asked for the latter's commitment to help maintain
international stability, as China develops further. Hu would certainly have
reiterated China's "peaceful development," as it emerges as a regional and world
power.
This entente is thus essential to maintaining regional and international
peace and stability in a world that is coming to grips with globalization,
economic uncertainties, international terrorism, religious violence and social
strife. Beijing and Washington have a moral obligation to help keep the world
stable and peaceful, and their relationship could thus be deemed the most
important and critical in world politics and economics today.
As primary international "stakeholders," the United States and China must
engage in a sound dialogue on all major world issues we are confronted with, and
the White House summit was thus perceived by ASEAN countries as the best
opportunity for China and the United States to reach a mutual understanding on
their respective perceptions of the world and the numerous "common"
international issues.
ASEAN countries, which are already discussing intensely a Free Trade Area
(FTA) with China, also known as the "10+1" agreement, had hoped that a greater
Sino-US understanding would prevent any competition or rivalry between the two
powers in Southeast Asia, which would have inconvenienced them. It is in this
same vein that ASEAN countries have already watched with trepidation the brewing
Sino-Japanese feud that has engulfed the two Asian giants. ASEAN countries would
hope never to have to choose between two powers or two rivals as big powers
usually have the tendency to seek the loyalties of smaller countries in their
own tussles; choosing camps and sides usually puts smaller nations at full risk.
Moreover, the Western media have systematically portrayed China's development
as a "threat" and as a bitter rivalry with, and challenge to, the United States
in ASEAN. China has, on the other hand, been assuring its smaller ASEAN
neighbours of its "peaceful development" and "harmonious world" concept. The
"10+1" has in fact been reiterated by Beijing as proof of its benevolence and
benign attitude towards ASEAN, as plans are under way to prepare for the third
ASEAN-China Exposition this coming October in Nanning of the Guangxi Zhuang
Autonomous Region.
But the United States is facing challenges from some ASEAN countries as it
pursues its global policy (like in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran
or the Middle East), which Muslim countries in the region may not entirely agree
with. Therein lies the fundamental challenge to both China and the United States
in Southeast Asia.
But more importantly, ASEAN seeks regional stability for its own economic and
social development, as it has always professed that it is committed to
attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to kick off fast economic
development. Overall instability in the region would definitely be a big blow to
economic growth and FDI influx into ASEAN economies.
ASEAN countries need trade to keep their economies humming and robust (as
outward-looking economies), as they actively embrace globalization. The 1997
financial crisis was in fact more than just a financial one, as it became an
economic, social and then political crisis as well; in a way, the major ASEAN
countries have all experienced a "total crisis," when trade almost collapsed for
the regional entity.
ASEAN societies need fast economic growth (through trade and FDI) to help
muster social re-distribution across all echelons of their societies, as they
"transit" into more matured economies and societies. Following the Chinese
thesis, social stability is necessary to accompany reforms, otherwise social
uncertainties and political chaos could emerge and compromise prescribed
reforms.
A sound Sino-US entente and understanding is psychologically critical to
stabilizing the whole East Asian region as a region of peace and stability,
especially as East Asia attempts to build a regional community. Washington's
role in the region is not challenged by Beijing, as assured repeatedly by China
to the Americans and the regional countries. Washington could even help East
Asia's community-building, even though it did not participate in the Kuala
Lumpur East Asia Summit last December.
Southeast Asians have thus hoped ardently for a good entente between
presidents Hu and Bush in Washington in order to stabilize Southeast and East
Asia, so that economic and social stability can contribute towards regionalism
in the region; the United States and China, as the world's powers and
"responsible stakeholders," could thus stabilize the Asia-Pacific region for
peaceful development and the continuous "emergence" of ASEAN.