Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will visit India this week with the race between
the world's two most populous nations to secure the energy they need to fuel
their growing economies likely to be on the agenda.
With rapidly growing oil demand and increasing dependence on imports¡ªlast
year over 40 percent of China's crude and some 70 percent of India's came from
abroad¡ªthe two countries have more than just their rivalry in common.
They are linked by similar business models, with cash-rich, State-controlled
oil firms seen having more appetite for risk than companies beholden to
earnings-conscious shareholders.
"Although there is competition, both sides share a common aim," said Zhou
Fengqi, a high-level adviser in the Energy Research Institute of China's
National Development and Reform Commission.
"There is a basis for cooperation between the two sides, because they are
both developing countries with oil demand ... but the specifics of any
cooperation still needs to be researched."
A deal could include agreements for each country to refrain from trying to
buy certain assets to prevent bidding wars, or working on joint projects in
areas of interest, analysts said.
"We are pitted against each other almost always to the advantage of the third
country," Indian Oil Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar said.
Although Chinese and Indian companies are partners in Sudan's Greater Nile
Project, widespread cooperation could be a long way off with both countries on a
global prowl for assets.
"The Chinese in particular, I think, would be reluctant to start excluding
themselves from ... areas of certain countries just so they could avoid having
Indians bidding on one or two assets," said Gavin Thompson, a Beijing-based
analyst with Wood Mackenzie.
"It¡¯s just a little bit too competitive for that to happen."
If China and India can¡¯t cooperate over oil and gas deposits, there may still
be a future for lower-level cooperation.
"Both countries have large populations without access to modern forms of
energy and we need to work together developing technologies appropriate for
rural areas," said R. K. Pachauri, director general of the Energy and Resources
Institute in New Dehli.
Cleaner coal-burning techniques would offer another opportunity for
cooperation, but neither side had promoted this kind of deal amid the jostling
about overseas oil resources, he said.