As a conflict between Israel and Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah entered
the 12th day yesterday, Egyptian experts said that the conflict was set to usher
in a new Middle East.
"I think what is going on in Lebanon at the moment would open the door for a
big change in the Middle East region," said Ramadan Abdul Kader, editor-in-chief
of the English-language daily The Egyptian Gazette.
"Israel's military operations in Lebanon tell of one fact: Israel would not
stop until Hezbollah is disarmed," Abdul Kader said.
This might be true. Earlier in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
told a cabinet meeting that the current Lebanon crisis would last for a long
time.
Olmert said that the Israeli army would not be restrained in its operations
against Hezbollah guerillas, Israel's best-selling newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth
reported.
Violence between Israel and Hezbollah erupted on July 12 whenHezbollah
guerillas abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed eight in a cross-border
attack.
Israel said that its military response was aimed at removing the group from
southern Lebanon.
More than 300 Lebanese and 37 Israelis have been killed in firefights between
the two sides, while tens of thousands of foreign nationals have been fleeing
Lebanon.
"Israel was sending clear messages to both Syria and Iran by doing so," Abdul
Kader said, adding that Hezbollah was believed to be supported by Syria and
Iran.
He said that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who will start her
crisis mission in the Middle East soon, was speaking about a new map for the
region.
"But, I have to say that the American version of the Middle East is one that
is full of chaos and destruction. Just look at what is going on in Iraq," said
Abdul Kader.
Ahmed Hany Hassnein, a senior editor and Mideast affairs expert based in
Cairo, said that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has opened a
new chapter in Middle East affairs.
"Some of old strategies have become obsolete and new elements have emerged in
an international formula," he wrote in an article carried by the Egyptian
Gazette on Friday.
The most important new element was the breaking of Israel'sstrategic security
taboo -- not attacked at home, he said. Since the outbreak of the conflict,
Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel. Haifa, Israel's
third largest city, has also come under attack, with several resident skilled.
Hassnein said that such a conflict was tantamount to are distribution of the
pack before a new deal that will change the region forever.
Israel would have to change its policies based on a new security and
strategic reality after the conflict was over, he said.
He said that Iran has a role to play in the conflict in Lebanon since it
maintained close relations with Syria and Hezbollah, adding that Iran would play
such a card in negotiations with Western powers on its nuclear program.
"Syria also needs a new formula to have a greater role after its army
withdrew from Lebanon," said Hassnein.
However, Mamdouh Qenawi, political analyst and chief of the Constitutional
Social Liberal Party, had an eye on what would happen inside Lebanon after the
conflict.
"After the guns fall silent, the Lebanese would start to bring Hezbollah
leaders to account," Qenawi said, adding that Hezbollah leaders would be held
responsible for destruction of infrastructure and death of many Lebanese.
To Qenawi's mind, the idea of some Lebanese blaming Hezbollah meant that
there might be a sectarian strife in Lebanon.
"Whether Lebanon would remain a unified country after this big argument is a
question," Qenawi said.
"At the same time, if the conflict (between Israel and Hezbollah) means
something to the Palestinians, it means that the creaking railway carriage of
peace has already derailed and there is no way to put it back on track," he
said.