The gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa is forecast to rise 5.9 percent in
2007 and 5.7 percent in 2008, according to a report from the African Development
Bank (ADB) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Development Center.
The ADB and OECD Development Center held a news conference hereto release the
report prior to the 2007 Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of African
Development Bank Group in Shanghai from May 16 to 17.
Prospects for most parts of Africa will continue to be highly favorable due
to constant global expansion, more official development assistance to Africa and
improving macro economy, the report of African Economic Outlook said.
Increased oil and mineral production in southern and central Africa and some
improvement in security situation will also boost economic growth, according to
the report.
Continued global development is able to sustain demand for oil, and other
industrial raw materials will remain relatively high prices. Oil prices are
expected to be stable at 60 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2007 and 2008, the report
said.
With GDP growth remaining buoyant in 2007 and 2008, inflation rate in Africa
is forecast to increase to 12.7 percent in 2007 and 12.9 percent in 2008.
Inflation in 2006 rose to 9.1 percent from 7.5 percent in 2005, largely due
to the impact of rising energy prices and unfavorable weather conditions.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remained a major source of investment in
Africa, which totaled a record 31 billion U.S. dollars in 2005, but only making
up three percent of the world's total and mainly concentrating in a few
countries and industries, the report said.
South Africa was the largest FDI recipient in 2005, attracting about 21
percent of the region's total.
Africa's top 10 recipient countries -- South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco,
Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Algeria, Tunisia and
Chad, in that order -- accounted for nearly 86 percent of the regional FDI
total.
However, FDI remained below 100 million U.S. dollars in 34 African countries
and investment in the region was mostly in sectors including oil, gas and
mining.
FDI is expected to grow in 2006 given high project commitments, large numbers
of investors eager to gain access to resources, and a generally favorable policy
stance for FDI in the region.
The report also highlighted the access to drinking water and sanitation.
Access to safe drinking water would diminish the risk of diarrhea by close to 70
percent in Ghana and improved sanitation would cut the risk of infant morality
by 40 percent in Uganda, according to the latest UN report.
The ADB and OECD report also warned of serious problems in some countries
that might damp their growth prospects, including the humanitarian situation in
the Darfur region of Sudan, economic crisis in Zimbabwe, and conflicts and
political unrest in Ethiopia, Cote d'Ivoire and Somalia.
Africa, with a total population of 924.32 million, scored GDP growth of 5.5
percent in 2006 thanks to the strong external demand for oil and non-oil
minerals, increased investment in these sectors, and good growing conditions for
agriculture in most countries.
The report examined 31 African countries, which account for around 86 percent
of Africa's population and 91 percent of its economic output.
Established in 1848, the OECD is one of the world's largest and most reliable
sources of comparable statistical, economic and social data. It has 30 members
including Japan, Mexico, the United States, and most European countries.
Founded in 1964, the ADB has 77 African and non-African members from America,
Europe and Asia. China became a member in 1985.