An agreement reached this month at the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ministerial meeting in Hong Kong, though not satisfactory to many, managed to keep global trade talks alive.
But with all the toughest issues remaining untouched at the meeting due to huge gaps between the United States and the European Union (EU), as well as between the developing and the developed world, WTO members will have a hard time next year trying to meet the end-2006 deadline to complete the Doha Round of talks.
"We have managed to put the Round back on track after a period of hibernation," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said after the Hong Kong meeting, a key event for the WTO in 2005.
The agreement reached by the WTO's 149 members in Hong Kong, though described by Lamy as a "modest" result, can be seen as significant progress since a framework deal was reached on Aug. 1, 2004.
The aim of the Hong Kong ministerial conference is to secure the round of trade talks, launched in 2001 in the Qatari capital of Doha, to deliver a package accords by the end of 2006 to remove global trade barriers.
The Hong Kong meeting's main achievement was a package of trade and aid measures intended to help the world's poorest countries and to bring relief to struggling African cotton producers. In addition to increasing technical aid, rich countries agreed to remove most of their restrictions on imports from those least developed countries.
The EU reluctantly accepted a 2013 deadline for eliminating all farm export subsidies, a concession by Europe that came three years later than previously sought by the United States and developing countries.
The agreement appears largely symbolic, because internal EU reforms already plan to eliminate most such subsidies by 2013.
That is why EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson told reporters in Hong Kong that the deal was a result of European compromise and "leadership", and French President Jacques Chirac praised him in France for resisting pressures for major concessions.
The agreement will "contribute to the development of the poorest countries but also preserve the vital potential of European agriculture," said Chirac.
Ministers patched up some bitter disputes at the Hong Kong meeting, but none of them moved beyond the long-established negotiating positions.
The expectations for the meeting had been set low to avoid an embarrassing collapse after the failure of preparatory talks in October. Originally billed as a make-or-break negotiating session, its goals were steadily downgraded after Lamy concluded in November that no big breakthroughs were possible.
After the Hong Kong meeting, Mandelson warned that the pace of negotiations needed to quicken. "You have to ask how long can we maintain enthusiasm for talks that crawl along at this pace... My hunch is that the Doha Development Agenda (the round's official name) has about a year's energy left in it."
For Lamy, the round is 60 percent complete, but the remaining 40 percent could prove a huge challenge.
The key issues still facing the negotiations in 2006 are when or how to eliminate or reduce the billions of dollars paid each year in agricultural production subsidies to farmers in Europe and the United States.
In return for such a deal, developing countries might have to open their markets in service and manufacturing industries.
The United States said Europe should move and open its long-protected farm market before the WTO talks could advance far. "The key to development is market access. Agriculture access is the top challenge," said US Trade Representative Rob Portman.
Developing countries have put more blame on farm subsidies than export subsidies for distorting world trade and keeping their largely farming populations poor.
France, the largest recipient of EU farm subsidies, and other big agriculture producers in Europe insist on retaining the subsidies to prevent further drops in their farming populations.
Meanwhile, the US cotton farmers also urged a hold on the billions of dollars they have been receiving as subsidies, which countries in Africa blamed for keeping them away from the benefit of the world cotton market.
The legislative authority that the US government needs to conduct international trade talks will expire in July 2007, and Washington has said that it would be difficult for President George W. Bush to persuade Congress to renew or extend the authority, particularly if the WTO talks make little progress in the next 18 months.
Under the circumstances, substantive negotiations in the round have to be completed by the end of next year, which means that a detailed agreement on tariff cuts should be reached no later than April 2006.
However, that is not to say the EU will become any more willing to slash its agricultural tariffs. Meanwhile, next year's congressional election campaign will make it even harder for the United States to offer concessions sought by its WTO partners.
European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso also warned on Monday in Brussels that the EU's WTO partners should not expect further concessions on farm aid from the bloc next year.
Many analysts fear, without more substantial progress in 2006, the WTO itself might collapse and the world, as a consequence, will face an era of bilateral and regional trade deals and heightened protectionism.