The reports, quoted by The New York Times on Wednesday, also warn that the elections will be followed by more violence, including an increased likelihood of clashes between Shiites and Sunnis, possibly even leading to civil war.

This pessimism is consistent with other assessments over the past six months, including a classified cable sent in November by the Central Intelligence Agency's departing station chief in Baghdad.

The assessments, from the CIA and the Defense and State Departments, are based on the expectation that a Shiite Arab coalition will win the elections, in which Shiites are expected tomake up a vast majority of voters, the officials said. Leaders of the coalition have promised voters they will press Washington for a timetable for withdrawal, and the assessments say the new Iraqi government will feel bound, at least publicly, to meet that commitment.

Such a request would put new pressure on the Bush administration, which has said it would honor an Iraqi request buthas declined to set a timetable for withdrawing the 173,000 American and other foreign troops now in Iraq.

Administration officials said that in a meeting last Thursday, Bush's principal national security advisers had discussed how the United States might respond if the new Iraq government put forward such a request.

At the White House meeting last week, one senior military official warned that Iraq was already emerging as "Afghanistan West," becoming a magnet and haven for militants, the Times said.