With the holidays less than a week away, everyone in Hollywood is about to shut down for a fortnight - everyone in Hollywood, that is, except for those awards season campaigners whose job it is to fret about Oscar nominations, since nominations ballots will be mailed Dec. 27.

The first rush of honors and nominations is over. And the result is that a race that was viewed by most as wide open at the start has narrowed just a bit. A trio of front-runners has emerged, and everyone else will be scrambling to stake a claim at the open slots.

Alexander Paynee "Sideways" has vaulted from idiosyncratically flavored indie into a popular refreshment, having received the imprimatur of both the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and the New York Film Critics Circle - as well as being the nomination leader at the Independent Spirits, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards.

The delicate comedy from Fox Searchlight Pictures, which has been developing its bouquet ever since it debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival in September, is now virtually assured a shot at major Oscar nominations, including best picture.

Among more mainstream Hollywood offerings, Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby," which Warner Bros. Pictures hadn't even originally targeted for a 2004 release, entered the race at the last minute but immediately forged to the front of the pack. While early-voting groups have shown some resistance to rewarding Eastwood with an acting nomination, they've hailed his directing and composing and the movie's best picture prospects.

If a somber movie set in a boxing gymnasium can be called a chamber drama that demands respect, then Eastwood's film should have no trouble earning five or six nominations, just as his "Mystic River" did last year. Meanwhile, Martin Scorsese's "The Aviator" also appears poised for takeoff. The Miramax release, in which Warners is also partnered, opens Friday in Los Angeles and New York and expands over the holidays.

While it has hit a few pockets of critical resistance, the biopic comes with plenty of hooks: a commanding performance by Leonardo DiCaprio that should attract younger moviegoers; walk-ons by actors impersonating real Hollywood figures that should get the Academy chattering; and aerial action to keep the film from getting bogged down in too much talk. The runner-up behind "Sideways" in Globes nominations, it appears on target to land in the best picture circle.

The two films that could fill out the remaining two slots for best picture may well be "Ray" and "Finding Neverland," which are also expected to earn Academy nominations for Jamie Foxx and Johnny Depp, respectively. The Globes, which nominated six movies as best drama, suggest that "Closer," "Hotel Rwanda" and "Kinsey" remain in the running. And on the comedy/musical side, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" and "The Phantom of the Opera" are possibilities. If it were not for the existence of the best animated feature category, both "The Incredibles" and "Shrek 2" might be considered stronger possibilities for best picture consideration. And Michael Moore, having sidestepped the documentary competition, is still hoping to secure a best picture slot for "Fahrenheit 9/11."