Growth in developing countries will reach a near record 7 percent this
year and continue its fast pace in next two years, the World Bank said today.
According to Global Economic Prospects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of
Globalization, in 2007 and 2008, growth in developing countries will probably
slow, but still likely exceed 6 percent, more than twice the rate in high-income
countries, which is expected to be 2.6 percent, said the report.
Meanwhile, the whole world gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated
to have strengthened in 2006, coming in at 3.9 percent, compared with 3.5
percent in 2005.
On how globalization will shape the global economy over the next 25 years,
the report's "central scenario" predicts that the global economy could expand
from 35 trillion U.S. dollars in 2005 to 72 trillion dollars in 2030.
"While this outcome represent only a slight acceleration of global growth
compared to the past 25 years, it is driven more than ever before by strong
performance in developing countries," said Richard Newfarmer, the report's lead
author and economic advisor in the Trade Department.
"And while exact numbers will undoubtedly turn out to be different, the
underlying trends are relatively impervious to all but the most severe or
disruptive shocks," he said.
Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained over the period would
significantly affect global poverty.
"The number of people living on less than 1 dollar a day could be cut in
half, from 1.1 billion now to 550 million in 2030. However, some regions,
notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind.
Moreover, income inequality could widen within many countries, compounding
current concerns over inequality between countries," said Franois Bourguignon,
World Bank chief economist and senior vice president of Development
Economics.