Zimbabwe's rival leaders, under growing domestic, regional and international
pressure, yesterday began a crucial meeting to hammer out finer details of a
power-sharing deal seen as the only cure of the country's long running economic
and political crisis.
The leaders, drawn from the government and the opposition, signed a
preliminary agreement last month to share power in a government of national
unity, but have since then sharply bickered over which ministries each side will
control.
The bickering, mainly centered on control of the powerful ministries of
defence, home affairs, finance, information, local government and justice, now
threatens the Sept. 15 power-sharing agreement which the government and the
opposition signed, after being painstakingly brokered by former South African
President Thabo Mbeki over several months on behalf of the African Union (AU)
and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai
accuses President Robert Mugabe of attempting to take all the key ministries,
leaving his partners in the proposed coalition government with inconsequential
cabinet portfolios.
He has vowed never to accept skewed sharing of power, threatening instead to
pull out of the proposed government of national unity in which Tsvangirai has
been designated prime minister.
The stand off prompted Monday's crucial meeting seen as a make or break for
both the parties involved, and the regional groups mediating. It comes hard on
the heels of a failed SADC summit on Zimbabwe last week in Swaziland.
The leaders of Angola, Mozambique and Swaziland, who make up SADC's troika
states in charge of politics, defence and security in the sub-region, are
mediating in the dispute, the latest in a series between Zimbabwe's government
and the opposition in recent years.
But analysts say the two sides may now be amenable to a compromise, softened
by public demand for a settlement from their domestic political constituencies,
and the region as a whole.
As Zimbabwe slides deeper into economic crisis, itself a product of political
deadlock, more and more demands for a settlement between the government and the
opposition are being made by their constituencies, analysts said.
"The rank and file of both parties (government and the opposition) are tired
of the intrigues that they have seen, and all they are interested in now is a
settlement that will bring national and personal stability," Bornwell Chakaodza,
a political analyst, said.
He said the pressure is more on the government which currently controls the
levers of power, and is therefore expected to deliver by the whole nation, not
just its political constituencies.
"I think Mugabe is under more pressure because, by virtual of his position,
he gets much of the blame for the economic and political ills prevailing in
Zimbabwe right now. On the other hand, Tsvangirai has time and local and foreign
support on his side, but he is also under growing pressure," he said.
It is this pressure, Chakaodza and other analysts said, that was likely to
drive the two sides into compromising to conclude the power-sharing deal. The
analysts said both the government and the opposition were cognizant of losing
more and more electoral support, as voters become disillusioned with their long
running political feud, in future polls.
"Look at how (former finance minister Simba) Makoni managed to win a
considerable number of voters from both (the ruling party) ZANU-PF and the MDC
in the last presidential election in March. Both parties are aware they could be
dislodged by a third force if they don't make hay right now when the sun is
shining," said a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer who declined
to be named.
He said there was growing disenchantment with the political two parties among
voters because of their failure to conclude the negotiations and start working
together to turn around the economy, once one of Africa's shining examples for
good management and product and service delivery.
The elections maybe far off, but going into a new vote poles apart and with
nothing to offer, would be political suicide for both ZANU-PF and the MDC,
especially if someone like Makoni joined the fray, analysts said.
The AU and SADC, until now largely bystanders in Zimbabwe's long running
political drama, are also piling heavy pressure on the two sides to conclude the
power-sharing deal, they added.
"The two organizations have staked their prestige and reputation on Zimbabwe,
and are therefore keen to see the deal succeed to safeguard their political
standings," the University of Zimbabwe lecturer said.
"They (AU and SADC) have told the rest of the world to back off, and promised
to handle the Zimbabwe question within the continent. It has to succeed,
otherwise their respectability will be in tatters," he added.
Indeed, the AU and SADC have patiently stomached some of the crudest disputes
and hold-ups between the government and the opposition, including the current
disagreement over ministerial allocations in the coalition administration.
"Zimbabwe is their baby which they want to weep into line alone. The world
and Zimbabweans are saying, fine but please don't take forever," said the
University of Zimbabwe lecturer.