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Expert: Pressure for RMB appreciation ill-considered (2) Trade deficit

In 1997,when the Asian financial crisis occurred,many countries chose to devalue their currencies.

But China decided not to devalue the renminbi.

China's sacrifice contributed greatly to the stability of the world economy.

The decision won high appraises not only from developing countries,but also from developed countries.

With the aim of digesting and absorbing the losses brought about by the decision,the Chinese Government has carried out a pro-active fiscal policy and a sound monetary policy aimed at expanding domestic demand for more than 5years.

If the government decides to appreciate the yuan,it will once again give economic development a tremendous setback.

Japan,which fanatically preaches for yuan appreciation,has already become a big winner from the trade surplus with China.

China's trade deficit with Japan ranked fourth in 2002and ranked third in the first five months of this year.

If the yuan appreciates,China's trade deficit with Japan will further deepen.

This would be unfair to China.

It is also improper for the government to appreciate the yuan at a time when discussions on the issue are "hot,''because the appreciation will result in a vicious circle of "appreciation leading to more appreciation.''

Now,China is gradually opening its capital account.

The strong appreciation expectation will result in a fast inflow of hot money.

If the hot money flows out again because of economic fluctuations,China's economy will be greatly hurt.

The ensuing unrest in the Chinese economy would increase the instability of the world economy.


China Daily


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