The capture of ousted Iraqi president Saddam Hussein is good news for the United States but its long-term ramifications on the security situation in Iraq and US domestic politics and foreign policy remain to be unfolded in the weeks or months to come, analysts say.
Although President George W. Bush announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq on as early as May 1, the oil-rich country has quickly turned into a quagmire for US and its allied forces ever since.
Attacks on US and allied forces have evolved from what the US military first dismissed as "pocket resistance" to "a classic guerrilla war," which has claimed the lives of over 180 US soldiers since May 1.
A classified Central Intelligence Agency report admitted last month that Iraqis are increasingly losing confidence in the US occupation authority and its hand-picked Iraqi Governing Council and willing to offer more support to the resistance.
The deteriorating security situation has not only forced international organizations such as the United Nations and the International Red Cross Association to evacuate its staff from Iraq, but also compromised US efforts to seek international military and financial assistance for rebuilding Iraq.
Meanwhile, President Bush, who enjoyed a soaring support at home in the immediate aftermath of the downfall of Saddam's regime, is facing an increasingly skeptical American public over whether the United States should go into war.
His support ratings have dwindled to the level prior to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, casting a shadow over the prospect of his re-election next year.
The capture of Saddam, therefore, avails the US occupation authority of an opportunity to deliver a clear message to Iraqis that the regime led by Saddam has gone forever and hope that the message would weaken Iraqi resistance and encourage more Iraqis to come forward to help rebuild the country, analysts say.
"The capture of Saddam Hussein will clearly take the wind out of the sails of the Baath insurgents," Ike Shelton, a ranking member of the Armed Services Committee of US House of Representatives, told reporters shortly after he was told the news on Sunday.
"The Iraqi people can finally be assured that Saddam Hussein will not be coming back -- they can see it for themselves," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said in a statement later.
Meanwhile, President Bush could boast the prize as a major victory to dispel skepticism of his Iraqi strategy and silence criticism on his foreign policy, especially from the Democrats.
The custody of Saddam would also strengthen President Bush's hands in leading with other countries, especially those who have adamantly opposed the US-led war against Iraq, analysts believe.
The development, for example, will make former US secretary of state James Baker's mission less difficult when he travels to Europe next week to persuade leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Britain to reduce Iraq's enormous foreign debt as President Bush's personal special envoy.
However, analysts caution that while Saddam's capture will help the United States and the administration in a number of fronts in short term, its long-term ramifications on Iraq and on US domestic politics and foreign policy should be examined in perspectives.
Some analysts claim that the armed resistance against US occupation could die out after some desperate retaliation over Saddam's capture, but some others point out that Saddam's Baathist loyalists are only part of the security challenge facing the allied troops because the insurgency also involves foreign infiltrators and even terrorists.
The attacks by both the Baathists and foreign infiltrators may well linger on despite Saddam's capture, because, as US media quoted those captured by the US forces as saying, they are fighting not for Saddam but for ending US occupation.
President Bush could benefit from the seizure of Saddam politically, but whether he could get re-elected to quite some extent depends on the future development in Iraq during the period leading to next year's election as well as a number of other factors.
Internationally speaking, the Bush administration still owes an explanation to the world community why it went to war with Iraq in the first place when no weapons of mass destruction have been found nearly nine months later.
The capture of Saddam, some analysts believe, could also pose a legal challenge for the United States which has to decide how to put the former Iraqi leader on trial and convince the world that the process is impartial.
Xinhua news